Philosophy Config

version: 1
core_principle: When the market panics and pundits declare it the worst stretch
  in months, that's the entry signal — not the exit. Never sell. Accumulate on
  fear.
macro_fear_buying:
  primary_instrument: VTI
  secondary_instrument: VOO
  sentiment_triggers:
    consecutive_down_days_min: 3
    fear_greed_below: 25
    vix_above: 25
    media_panic_keywords:
      - worst week since
      - worst day since
      - worst month since
      - market crash
      - bloodbath
      - correction territory
      - bear market
      - capitulation
      - panic selling
      - sell-off deepens
      - recession fears
      - market turmoil
      - investor exodus
      - meltdown
      - freefall
  quantitative_triggers:
    sp500_drawdown_pct: 5
    below_50dma: true
    below_200dma: true
    breadth_negative_pct: 65
  deployment_tiers:
    - level: opportunity
      dry_powder_pct: 20
      description: Fear building. Soft buy signal.
    - level: strong_opportunity
      dry_powder_pct: 40
      description: Real panic. Strong buy.
    - level: generational
      dry_powder_pct: 80
      description: Historic dislocation. Back up the truck.
conviction_positions:
  - ticker: CAT
    name: Caterpillar
    thesis: America will always build. CAT is the dominant heavy equipment company
      globally.
    sector: industrials_infrastructure
    buy_triggers:
      price_below_50dma: true
      drawdown_from_52wk_high_pct: 10
      buy_on_macro_fear: true
    scale_in:
      tranche_1: 15000
      tranche_2: 20000
      tranche_3: 25000
      days_between: 3
    never_sell: true
  - ticker: AAPL
    name: Apple
    thesis: Deepest consumer moat in tech. 2B+ active devices. People don't leave
      the ecosystem.
    sector: semiconductors_hardware
    buy_triggers:
      price_below_50dma: true
      drawdown_from_52wk_high_pct: 10
      buy_on_macro_fear: true
    scale_in:
      tranche_1: 15000
      tranche_2: 20000
      tranche_3: 25000
      days_between: 3
    never_sell: true
  - ticker: VTI
    name: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
    thesis: The US economy isn't going away. VTI is the entire market in one ticker.
    sector: total_market
    buy_triggers:
      price_below_50dma: true
      drawdown_from_52wk_high_pct: 5
      buy_on_macro_fear: true
      consecutive_down_days: 3
    scale_in:
      tranche_1: 10000
      tranche_2: 20000
      tranche_3: 25000
      tranche_4: 25000
      days_between: 3
    never_sell: true
    notes: |
      VTI is both a conviction hold AND the primary macro fear instrument.
      It appears here and in macro_fear_buying. When macro fear fires,
      VTI is the default buy. The scale-in here is more aggressive with
      a 4th tranche because index-level dips are lower risk than single stocks.
  - ticker: XLE
    name: Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund
    thesis: ETF holding major US energy companies focused on oil, gas exploration,
      and production.
    buy_below_50dma: true
    buy_below_200dma: true
    max_drawdown_trigger_pct: 15
    never_sell: true
irrational_dip_hunting:
  enabled: true
  criteria:
    min_market_cap_b: 50
    min_drawdown_pct: 15
    no_fundamental_connection: true
    strong_cash_flows: true
    durable_demand_industries:
      - Consumer Staples
      - Healthcare
      - Utilities
      - Infrastructure
      - Defense
      - Waste Management
      - Insurance
signal_levels:
  all_clear:
    sms: false
    email: false
    description: Market is fine. No action.
  watchful:
    sms: true
    email: false
    description: Some softness. Worth watching.
  opportunity:
    sms: true
    email: true
    description: Fear building. Soft buy signal. Deploy 20% dry powder.
  strong_opportunity:
    sms: true
    email: true
    description: Real panic. Strong buy. Deploy 40% dry powder.
  generational:
    sms: true
    email: true
    description: Historic dislocation. Deploy 80% dry powder.
notification:
  sms_enabled: true
  email_enabled: true
  min_signal_to_notify: watchful
fed_awareness:
  current_rate: 3.50-3.75
  rate_direction: easing
  last_meeting: 2026-01-28
  last_action: hold
  next_meeting: 2026-03-18
  meetings_2026:
    - date: 2026-01-28
      status: completed
      action: hold
    - date: 2026-03-18
      status: upcoming
      has_projections: true
    - date: 2026-04-29
      status: upcoming
      has_projections: false
    - date: 2026-06-17
      status: upcoming
      has_projections: true
    - date: 2026-07-29
      status: upcoming
      has_projections: false
    - date: 2026-09-16
      status: upcoming
      has_projections: true
    - date: 2026-10-28
      status: upcoming
      has_projections: false
    - date: 2026-12-09
      status: upcoming
      has_projections: true
  interpretation_rules:
    pre_meeting_window_days: 5
    pre_meeting_note: "Fear signals within 5 days of an FOMC meeting are partially
      driven by rate uncertainty, not fundamentals. Still valid as buy signals,
      but note that some of the panic may resolve on announcement day regardless
      of the decision. Consider splitting: small tranche now, larger tranche
      after the meeting if conditions persist."
    post_meeting_window_days: 3
    post_meeting_note: Fear signals within 3 days AFTER an FOMC decision carry more
      weight than pre-meeting fear. The uncertainty has resolved. If the market
      is still selling, the problem is real, not anticipated. Upgrade signal
      strength by one tier if post-meeting sell-off persists.
    rate_impact_on_convictions:
      easing_cycle: Rate cuts are a tailwind for industrials and infrastructure.
        Cheaper financing = more construction = more CAT orders. Dips during an
        easing cycle are STRONGER buy signals.
      hiking_cycle: Rate hikes are a headwind for industrials. A dip in CAT during a
        hiking cycle may be partially fundamental. Still a buy if thesis holds,
        but flag the rate headwind.
      holding_pattern: Rates on hold. Neutral for conviction stocks. Evaluate dips on
        their own merits.
    emergency_cut: An unscheduled emergency rate cut during a market sell-off is one
      of the strongest buy signals that exists. Historically, emergency cuts
      have marked bottoms or near-bottoms. If this happens, treat it as a
      "generational" signal upgrade regardless of other indicators.
    sep_meeting_note: This meeting includes the Summary of Economic Projections and
      dot plot. Expect higher volatility. Markets react not just to the rate
      decision but to the projected rate path. A hawkish dot plot shift can
      trigger multi-day sell-offs even if rates are unchanged.
  daily_context: "Always note: Days until next FOMC meeting, whether we're in a
    pre-meeting or post-meeting window, current rate direction
    (easing/hiking/holding), if the next meeting is a SEP meeting flag expected
    higher volatility. Include this context in the macro fear assessment so Kyle
    can weight the panic signal appropriately."
personal_signals:
  patterns:
    - name: The 'worst week since' headline trigger
      signal: |
        When major financial media (CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ) start running
        "worst week/day since [X months ago]" headlines, the sell-off is
        usually near its short-term bottom. The narrative itself creates
        the final wave of retail panic selling.
      implication: buy
      confidence: high
      example: |
        Feb 2025: market down 4 days straight, headlines said "worst week
        since early November." Bought $25k VTI. Popped back next day.

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