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Daily Run

2026-05-13 20:00:49

Watchful80% confidence

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Macro Fear Assessment

Despite positive market performance with major indices mostly up, there are 3 panic headlines matching keywords like 'worst week since' and 'panic selling,' indicating some underlying anxiety. Quantitative indicators show no significant fear, with VIX below 25, Fear & Greed in greed territory, and no drawdowns or consecutive down days. Monitor for escalation as headlines suggest caution amid macro risks.

Fear/Greed

66

VIX

17.77

Down Days

0

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

WATCH VTI

Panic headlines are present, signaling building fear, but quantitative triggers like consecutive down days, VIX above 25, Fear & Greed below 25, and SP500 drawdown are not met, so no buy signal yet.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$902.255

Price above 50DMA, drawdown from 52wk high at 3.12% below 10% threshold, no macro fear trigger.

HOLD
AAPL$298.87

Price above 50DMA, drawdown from 52wk high at 0.68% below 10% threshold, no macro fear trigger.

HOLD
VTI$364.66

Price above 50DMA, drawdown from 52wk high at 0.2% below 5% threshold, no consecutive down days or macro fear trigger.

HOLD
XLE$57.63

Below 50DMA but above 200DMA, drawdown from 52wk high at 9.19% below 15% threshold.

HOLD
VMC$274.55market_driven

Below both 50DMA and 200DMA, drawdown from 52wk high at 17.08% exceeds 15% threshold; appears tied to broader market softness rather than company-specific issues.

BUY
KULR$4.05

Above both 50DMA and 200DMA despite large overall drawdown; buy triggers require being below DMAs.

HOLD

Irrational Dips

AAPL$298.870.68%

Recent drop seems overblown given strong fundamentals and upcoming product launches

Goes away? No because deepest consumer moat in tech. 2B+ active devices. People don't leave the ecosystem.

CAT$902.2553.12%

Sell-off tied to broader industrial fears, ignoring solid earnings and infrastructure demand

Goes away? No because America will always build. CAT is the dominant heavy equipment company globally.

VMC$274.5517.08%

Drawdown exceeds 15% with price below 50DMA and 200DMA, in durable infrastructure sector with no apparent fundamental connection to company-specific issues

Goes away? No because produces essential construction aggregates for infrastructure projects, with strong demand in durable industry.

Notable Risks

  • -Federal Reserve interest rate speculation could increase volatility ahead of June SEP meeting
  • -Geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices may pressure energy sector
  • -Tech earnings disappointment fears amid high RSI levels indicating overbought conditions
  • -Inflation data release anticipation contributing to cautious mood
  • -Retail investor volatility concerns amid bearish crypto sentiment

Signals Fired (2)

CATirrational_dip$902.255
BUY
AAPLirrational_dip$298.87
BUY
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailerror