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Daily Run

2026-09-16 20:00:20

Watchful65% confidence

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Macro Fear Assessment

Three consecutive down days with matching panic headlines ('worst week since') and negative breadth, but VIX remains subdued at 18 and Fear & Greed at 26. Conditions show early fear but fall short of full macro triggers.

Fear/Greed

26

VIX

17.99

Down Days

3

Panic Headlines

2

Macro Action

WATCH VTI

Consecutive down days and headlines present but VIX below 25 and FG above 25 threshold; FOMC meeting today adds rate uncertainty so defer larger action.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$783.245market_driven

Deep drawdown from highs, below 50DMA, infrastructure thesis intact amid easing cycle.

BUY
AAPL$332.41

Price above 50DMA and only -3.5% from highs; not in buy zone.

HOLD
VTI$371.3

Below 50DMA but drawdown only 3.59% vs 5% trigger; monitor post-FOMC.

WATCH
XLE$64.035

Above both 50DMA and 200DMA; no buy trigger.

HOLD
VMC$244.23market_driven

Significant drawdown and below DMAs but max drawdown trigger not fully aligned with macro fear level.

WATCH
KULR$2.295market_driven

Never-sell flag is false; speculative name outside core playbook.

HOLD

Irrational Dips

AAPL$332.413.53%

Sold off with broader tech despite solid iPhone demand and ecosystem moat.

Goes away? No because 2B+ active devices and recurring revenue base remain durable.

CAT$783.24527.04%

Infrastructure spending tailwinds ignored amid macro rotation.

Goes away? No because America will always build and CAT remains dominant global player.

Notable Risks

  • -FOMC dot plot volatility could extend sell-off
  • -Oil supply concerns adding sector rotation pressure

Signals Fired (1)

CATconviction$783.245
BUY
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailerror