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Daily Run

2026-05-17 20:00:54

Watchful65% confidence

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Macro Fear Assessment

Single down day with panic headlines present but VIX at 18.43, Fear & Greed at 63 (greed), and indices well above 50/200 DMAs. Headlines like 'worst week since 2022' and 'recession fears' are noted but not yet supported by quantitative breadth or volatility triggers.

Fear/Greed

63

VIX

18.43

Down Days

1

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

WATCH VTI

No macro fear triggers met: only 1 consecutive down day, VIX below 25, Fear & Greed well above 25, and price above DMAs with minimal drawdown.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$888.31market_driven

Price above 50 DMA and drawdown only 4.62% from 52w high; easing cycle is supportive but no buy trigger hit yet.

WATCH
AAPL$300.23

Near 52w high with strong RSI; not in buy zone per playbook criteria.

HOLD
VTI$362.74market_driven

Above 50/200 DMAs with only 1.5% drawdown and 1 down day; monitor for further weakness.

WATCH
XLE$59.44

Above both DMAs and within 15% drawdown threshold; no buy signal.

HOLD
VMC$267.83market_driven

Below 50/200 DMAs with 19.11% drawdown exceeding 15% trigger; market-driven dip in infrastructure name.

BUY

Irrational Dips

AAPL$300.230.98%

Solid fundamentals and ecosystem moat ignored in broad rotation.

Goes away? No because 2B+ active devices and recurring revenue base remain intact.

CAT$888.314.62%

Robust backlog and earnings strength not reflected in price.

Goes away? No because America will always build and CAT remains dominant globally.

Notable Risks

  • -Broad sector rotation continuing
  • -Pre-SEP meeting volatility possible in June

Signals Fired (3)

AAPLirrational_dip$300.23
BUY
VMCconviction$267.83
BUY
CATirrational_dip$888.31
BUY
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailerror