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Daily Run

2026-03-18 01:00:55

Watchful75% confidence

Macro Fear Assessment

Market shows signs of softness with low RSI across indices, SP500 below 50DMA, and 3 panic headlines matching keywords like 'worst week since' and 'panic selling'. However, VIX is below 25, no consecutive down days, and drawdown from 30-day high is only 3.34%, indicating fear is building but not yet elevated. This occurs on FOMC meeting day, suggesting uncertainty-driven volatility.

Fear/Greed

-1

VIX

22.37

Down Days

0

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

WATCH VTI

Macro fear triggers are partially met with panic headlines and below 50DMA, but key thresholds like consecutive down days >=3, VIX >25, and drawdown >=5% are not hit, so no buy signal; monitor closely due to FOMC timing.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$702

Price is above 50DMA (702 > 693.52), failing the below_50dma trigger despite drawdown of 11.12% exceeding 10%; macro fear not fully triggered, and in easing cycle which is a tailwind, but no clear buy signal today.

HOLD
AAPL$254.23market_driven

Price below 50DMA (254.23 < 261.99) and drawdown of 11.92% exceeds 10%, meeting triggers; social sentiment notes irrational dip due to supply chain rumors with strong fundamentals, but macro fear building pre-FOMC suggests watching for persistence post-meeting.

WATCH
VTI$330.57

Price below 50DMA (330.57 < 338.41) but drawdown of 4.02% below 5% threshold, and consecutive down days at 0 vs required 3; partial macro fear but insufficient for buy.

HOLD
XLE$58.51

Price above 50DMA (58.51 > 52.42) and 200DMA, with minimal drawdown of 0.91% far below 15% trigger; bullish sector sentiment but no dip to act on.

HOLD

Notable Risks

  • -Potential hawkish dot plot shift triggering extended sell-off despite unchanged rates
  • -Geopolitical tensions in oil could inflate energy prices, impacting broader market recovery
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailcompleted