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Daily Run

2026-03-18 01:01:33

Watchful75% confidence

Macro Fear Assessment

Market shows some softness with SP500 below 50DMA and panic headlines present, but VIX is below 25, no consecutive down days, and drawdown under 5%. Fear & Greed data unavailable, but social sentiment indicates caution amid FOMC uncertainty. Overall, fear is building but not yet at panic levels.

Fear/Greed

-1

VIX

22.37

Down Days

0

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

WATCH VTI

Conditions do not meet full macro fear triggers (e.g., no 3+ consecutive down days, VIX below 25, drawdown under 5%), but headlines and pre-FOMC volatility warrant monitoring for potential escalation.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$702

Price above 50DMA (702 > 693.52), so does not meet buy trigger despite drawdown over 10%; macro fear not fully triggered.

HOLD
AAPL$254.23market_driven

Below 50DMA (254.23 < 261.99) and drawdown over 10% (11.92%); building macro fear aligns with buy_on_macro_fear trigger, and social data suggests irrational dip.

BUY
VTI$330.57

Below 50DMA but drawdown under 5% (4.02%) and no 3+ consecutive down days; does not meet full buy triggers.

HOLD
XLE$58.51

Above 50DMA (58.51 > 52.42) and drawdown under 15% (0.91%); does not meet buy triggers.

HOLD

Irrational Dips

AAPL$254.2311.92%

Recent sell-off due to supply chain fears seems overblown given strong fundamentals and cash reserves, with no fundamental connection to company-specific issues.

Goes away? Is this company going away? No because Apple has a deep consumer moat with 2B+ active devices and durable ecosystem loyalty.

Notable Risks

  • -High volatility expected from SEP dot plot and rate path projections, potentially triggering multi-day sell-offs if hawkish.
  • -Pre-FOMC uncertainty may overstate fear, resolving quickly post-announcement.
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailcompleted