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Daily Run

2026-03-18 19:52:12

Opportunity75% confidence

Macro Fear Assessment

Market indices showed broad declines today with all sectors down, VIX near the 25 threshold, and drawdowns approaching 5% for the S&P 500. Panic headlines matching keywords like 'worst week since' and 'recession fears' indicate building fear, though consecutive down days are only 1 and VIX is just below 25. This aligns with soft fear signals amplified by FOMC meeting day volatility.

Fear/Greed

-1

VIX

24.1

Down Days

1

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

BUY VTIDeploy: opportunity

Fear is building with panic headlines, broad market drawdown near 5%, and below 50DMA, triggering a soft buy signal for VTI as the primary macro fear instrument. Deploy 20% dry powder, considering splitting tranches around the FOMC announcement due to rate uncertainty.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$695.91market_driven

Drawdown exceeds 10% and macro fear is present, but price is slightly above 50DMA, so not fully in buy zone. Monitor for further weakness in easing cycle, which is a tailwind for industrials.

WATCH
AAPL$249.34market_driven

Price below 50DMA, drawdown exceeds 10%, and macro fear triggers apply, signaling a buy. Scale in tranches amid broader market panic.

BUY
VTI$326.325market_driven

Price below 50DMA, drawdown exceeds 5%, and macro fear is building, though consecutive down days are only 1. Aligns with primary macro instrument buy on fear.

BUY
XLE$58.465

Price above both 50DMA and 200DMA, with minimal drawdown below 15%, so no buy triggers met despite energy sector strength.

HOLD

Notable Risks

  • -Potential hawkish dot plot shift triggering extended sell-off post-FOMC
  • -Geopolitical tensions boosting oil but pressuring broader market if recession fears escalate
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailcompleted