◆ iron harvest
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Daily Run

2026-07-29 20:01:00

Watchful65% confidence

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Macro Fear Assessment

Single 'worst week since 2022' headline and sector breadth weakness (2 up/6 down) create mild fear signal. VIX at 20.08, Fear & Greed at 34, and only 1 down day fall short of macro triggers (needs 3 days, VIX>25, FG<25).

Fear/Greed

34

VIX

20.08

Down Days

1

Panic Headlines

1

Macro Action

WATCH VTI

Headline matches keyword but quantitative triggers (consecutive days, VIX, FG, drawdown) not met. Pre-FOMC rate uncertainty adds noise; hold dry powder.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$782.77market_driven

Price well below 50DMA, 27% drawdown from high exceeds 10% trigger. Easing cycle supports industrials; macro headline adds tailwind despite limited overall fear.

BUY
AAPL$338.19

Trading above 50DMA with only 1.85% drawdown; not in buy zone per playbook criteria.

HOLD
VTI$360.52

Below 50DMA but drawdown 3.78% below 5% threshold and only 1 down day; insufficient for scale-in.

HOLD

Notable Risks

  • -FOMC decision volatility today
  • -CAT move may exceed broad market due to company-specific factors

Signals Fired (1)

CATconviction$782.77
BUY
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailerror