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Daily Run

2026-03-18 00:59:55

Watchful75% confidence

Macro Fear Assessment

Market shows signs of building fear with panic headlines matching keywords like 'worst week since' and 'market crash,' but VIX is below 25, no consecutive down days, and indices closed positively today. SP500 is below 50DMA with a 3.34% drawdown from 30-day high, but this falls short of stronger quantitative triggers. Overall, sentiment indicates caution amid FOMC uncertainty, though not yet elevated panic.

Fear/Greed

-1

VIX

22.37

Down Days

0

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

WATCH VTI

No clear macro fear buy signal triggered due to zero consecutive down days, VIX below 25, and drawdown below 5%; however, panic headlines and below 50DMA warrant monitoring for potential escalation post-FOMC.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$702

Price is above 50DMA and drawdown of 11.12% meets the percentage trigger, but requires below 50DMA for entry; easing cycle is a tailwind, but no buy signal yet.

HOLD
AAPL$254.23market_driven

Below 50DMA and drawdown of 11.92% exceeds 10%; aligns with macro fear elements like tech sell-off and panic headlines, triggering scale-in on market-driven dip.

BUY
VTI$330.57

Below 50DMA but drawdown of 4.02% below 5% threshold and zero consecutive down days; does not meet full buy triggers despite some fear indicators.

HOLD
XLE$58.51

Price above 50DMA and 200DMA, with minimal drawdown of 0.91% far below 15%; energy sector shows bullish sentiment, no dip triggers met.

HOLD

Irrational Dips

AAPL$254.2311.92%

Drop driven by broader tech sell-off and market uncertainty ahead of FOMC, despite strong fundamentals including 2B+ active devices and upcoming product launches with no company-specific issues.

Goes away? Is this company going away? No because Apple has a deep consumer moat with ecosystem lock-in and durable demand in semiconductors/hardware.

Notable Risks

  • -FOMC decision or hawkish dot plot could trigger further sell-off if perceived negatively
  • -Geopolitical tensions boosting oil may unevenly impact sectors, with energy bullish but broader market cautious
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailcompleted