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Daily Run

2026-03-17 20:07:44

Watchful75% confidence

Macro Fear Assessment

Market shows some softness with SP500 below 50DMA and low RSI across indices, but no consecutive down days and VIX below 25 indicate fear is not yet elevated. Panic headlines are present, suggesting building sentiment-driven pressure amid pre-FOMC uncertainty. Overall, conditions point to watchful monitoring rather than strong panic.

Fear/Greed

-1

VIX

22.45

Down Days

0

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

WATCH VTI

Macro fear triggers are partially met with headlines and below 50DMA, but consecutive down days are 0, VIX is below 25, and drawdown is under 5%, so no buy signal; monitor for escalation post-FOMC.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$702.51market_driven

Drawdown exceeds 10% at -11.05%, but price is above 50DMA, so does not fully meet buy triggers; building macro fear and easing cycle tailwind suggest watching for further dip.

WATCH
AAPL$254.23market_driven

Below 50DMA and drawdown exceeds 10% at -11.92%, meeting individual triggers, but macro fear is only building, not fully triggered; pre-FOMC timing warrants caution before buying.

WATCH
VTI$330.58

Below 50DMA but drawdown at -4.02% is under 5% threshold, and consecutive down days are 0, so no buy zone; hold per never-sell philosophy.

HOLD
XLE$58.5

Above both 50DMA and 200DMA with minimal drawdown at -0.93%, well below 15% trigger; bullish sector sentiment supports holding.

HOLD

Irrational Dips

AAPL$254.2311.92%

Recent sell-off due to supply chain rumors, despite strong fundamentals and upcoming product launches, with no fundamental connection to core thesis.

Goes away? Is this company going away? No because deepest consumer moat in tech with 2B+ active devices; people don't leave the ecosystem.

CAT$702.5111.05%

Stock down on cyclical fears, but infrastructure bill optimism not priced in, and dip appears market-driven without fundamental issues.

Goes away? Is this company going away? No because America will always build; CAT is the dominant heavy equipment company globally.

Notable Risks

  • -Pre-FOMC volatility could lead to knee-jerk sell-offs or quick reversals post-announcement
  • -SEP dot plot shift might trigger extended downside if hawkish
  • -Low volume across assets indicates potential for amplified moves on thin trading

Signals Fired (2)

CATirrational_dip$702.51
BUY
AAPLirrational_dip$254.23
BUY
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailcompleted