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Daily Run

2026-03-23 20:00:25

Opportunity75% confidence

Macro Fear Assessment

VIX is just above the 25 threshold, S&P 500 is below its 50DMA with a 5.49% drawdown from 30-day high, and there are 3 panic headlines matching keywords like 'worst week since' and 'market crash'. However, consecutive down days are zero and the market closed up today, suggesting fear is building but not yet at panic levels. Fear & Greed data is unavailable, so it does not contribute to the assessment.

Fear/Greed

-1

VIX

25.41

Down Days

0

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

BUY VTIDeploy: opportunity

Macro fear triggers are partially met with VIX above 25, S&P 500 drawdown over 5%, below 50DMA, and panic headlines present, indicating fear building for a soft buy signal; deploy 20% dry powder into VTI.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$701.8

Price is above 50DMA (701.8 > 699.94), failing the below_50dma trigger despite drawdown of 11.14% exceeding 10%; macro fear is present but stock-specific trigger not met.

HOLD
AAPL$251.49market_driven

Price below 50DMA (251.49 < 260.98), drawdown of 12.86% exceeds 10%, and buy_on_macro_fear aligns with current conditions; scale in per tranches during easing cycle tailwind.

BUY
VTI$324.35market_driven

Price below 50DMA (324.35 < 337.13), drawdown of 5.83% exceeds 5%, and macro fear triggers are active despite zero consecutive down days; more aggressive scale-in for index.

BUY
XLE$59.635

Price above 50DMA (59.635 > 53.47) and above 200DMA, with drawdown of 1.14% below 15% trigger; does not meet buy criteria.

HOLD

Notable Risks

  • -Geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices could extend volatility
  • -Anticipation of inflation data release may sustain market anxiety
  • -Tech sector earnings disappointments adding to bearish sentiment

Signals Fired (2)

AAPLconviction$251.49
BUY
VTImacro_fear$655.77
BUY
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailcompleted