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Daily Run

2026-03-18 19:51:12

Opportunity70% confidence

Macro Fear Assessment

Market shows signs of fear with 3 panic headlines matching keywords like 'worst week since' and 'market crash', but consecutive down days are only 1 and VIX is just below 25. SP500 drawdown is 4.57%, close to the 5% trigger, with breadth fully negative across sectors. Overall, fear is building but not yet at panic levels, amplified by FOMC meeting today.

Fear/Greed

-1

VIX

24.1

Down Days

1

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

BUY VTIDeploy: opportunity

Panic headlines trigger the 'worst week since' buy signal from the playbook, with VTI below 50DMA and drawdown over 5%, despite only 1 consecutive down day. Deploy 20% dry powder as fear builds on FOMC day.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$696.111market_driven

Drawdown of 11.86% exceeds 10% trigger and aligns with macro fear, but price is slightly above 50DMA, so not fully in buy zone. Easing cycle provides tailwind for industrials.

WATCH
AAPL$249.385market_driven

Below 50DMA and drawdown of 13.59% exceeds 10% trigger, combined with macro fear signals. Scale in per playbook tranches on this dip.

BUY
VTI$326.455market_driven

Below 50DMA and drawdown of 5.22% meets 5% trigger, with macro fear from headlines activating buy despite only 1 consecutive down day.

BUY
XLE$58.49

Price above 50DMA and 200DMA, with minimal drawdown of 0.95% far below 15% trigger. No buy signals met despite bullish energy sentiment.

HOLD

Notable Risks

  • -FOMC dot plot could shift hawkish, triggering extended sell-off even if rates hold
  • -Recession fears in headlines may deepen if economic data weakens post-meeting

Signals Fired (2)

AAPLconviction$249.385
BUY
VTImacro_fear$662.22
BUY
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailcompleted