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Daily Run

2026-04-09 20:00:39

Watchful70% confidence

Macro Fear Assessment

Market indices showed gains today with no consecutive down days and positions above key moving averages, but three panic headlines matching keywords like 'worst week since' and 'market crash' indicate recent sell-off concerns. VIX at 19.58 is moderately elevated, suggesting some building fear, though quantitative triggers like drawdown and VIX thresholds are not met. Overall, sentiment is cautious amid themes of rate concerns and geopolitical tensions.

Fear/Greed

-1

VIX

19.58

Down Days

0

Panic Headlines

3

Macro Action

WATCH VTI

Panic headlines are present, aligning with sentiment triggers, but core quantitative conditions (consecutive down days <3, VIX <25, drawdown <5%, not below DMAs) are not met for a buy signal. Monitor for potential escalation into opportunity territory.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$787.08

Price is above 50DMA, and drawdown from 52-week high is only 1.06%, below the 10% trigger; no macro fear signal to activate buy.

HOLD
AAPL$260.49

Price is slightly below 50DMA, but drawdown from 52-week high is 9.75%, just under the 10% trigger; no macro fear signal to activate buy.

HOLD
VTI$335.46

Price is above 50DMA, drawdown from 52-week high is 2.6% below the 5% trigger, and no consecutive down days; does not meet buy criteria.

HOLD
XLE$57.345

Price is above both 50DMA and 200DMA, with drawdown from 52-week high at 9.64%, below the 15% trigger; today's decline is noted but insufficient for buy.

HOLD

Notable Risks

  • -Geopolitical tensions driving oil price volatility and energy sector weakness
  • -Anticipation of inflation data and potential tech earnings disappointments amid bearish sector sentiment
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailcompleted