◆ iron harvest
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Daily Run

2026-08-04 20:00:14

All Clear85% confidence

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Macro Fear Assessment

No macro fear triggers active. VIX below 25, Fear & Greed at 59 (greed), zero consecutive down days, and major indices trading above 50/200 DMAs. Two panic headlines noted but contradicted by today's broad rally.

Fear/Greed

59

VIX

16.43

Down Days

0

Panic Headlines

2

Macro Action

HOLD VTI

None of the macro fear buy criteria (VIX>25, FG<25, 3+ down days, 5%+ drawdown) are met. Markets up sharply today.

Conviction Stocks

CAT$879.855market_driven

Below 50DMA and 18% off highs meets buy trigger thresholds, but no macro fear environment to deploy capital.

WATCH
AAPL$309.59market_driven

At 50DMA and 10% off highs meets criteria, but absent macro panic, no buy signal.

WATCH
VTI$380.955

Trading above all DMAs with minimal drawdown.

HOLD
XLE$58.56

Above both DMAs despite 7.7% drawdown from highs.

HOLD
VMC$285.13

Mildly below 200DMA but no macro fear catalyst.

HOLD
KULR$2.835

Never-sell flag is false; extreme drawdown but not a conviction position.

HOLD

Irrational Dips

AAPL$309.5910.15%

Strong services growth overlooked amid broader rotation.

Goes away? No, Apple is not going away; 2B+ active devices and ecosystem lock-in remain intact.

Notable Risks

  • -Oil (CL=F) down 5.6% on supply concerns
  • -Small-cap underperformance persisting per headlines
SourcesYahoo FinanceFear & GreedFREDGrok SentimentGrok AnalysisNotificationsSMSEmailerror